Ofqual's new 9-1 grades, appearing later this year for English and maths first, do not line up evenly with the old A* - G, so cannot be directly compared. The reason is twofold: firstly to set apart the highest achievers and secondly to denote a new, harder, set of exams.
The new Grade 4 adds further complication as it bears an ambiguous status this year as a ‘pass’ but not a ‘good’ enough pass to avoid a retake come 2019.
The changes will have an impact for colleges and sixth form colleges as students wait to find out what is required to get into sixth form.
Grade 9s will not be awarded as often a grade A*s have been. This, says Ofqual, is to reflect that the new GCSE content will be more challenging. In fact, according to the AQA video, the new grade 9 is a higher score than the current A*. It explains that the reason for the new grades is to make it easier to differentiate more clearly between higher and lower achieving students.
Whilst cynical speculators will wonder why an additional level of A** was not simply added to allow for direct comparison year on year, it is a deliberate move by Ofqual to recognise the higher achievement of the new cohort who take these new, more challenging exams.
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Geoff Barton, leader of The Association of College and School Leaders (ASCL) has warned that colleges and sixth forms will struggle with their recruitment and funding as a result of the changes unless the government give greater clarity. He commented to the Press Association: "The trouble with a new system is that if people are looking to simply match it across to the old system, it's not going to work."[1]
The ambiguity of the grade 4 is they key sticking point: whilst the 4 is a pass, it is not a 'good' pass and will result in a resit after 2019. Schools and colleges will now have to decide whether their students should resit until they get a 5, in case a 4 does not carry the currency of a pass later for employers. This will put course providers in a difficult position, explaining to students that they passed, but must endure the stress of a resit. The Fisher Family Trust estimate that shifting the 'good' rating from students achieving A*- C in English and maths to students achieving a 5 or above in English and maths (not a 4) will cut out as many as 23% of students (58% vs 35%). The ASCL has released a helpful FAQs sheet to support schools in understanding the changes.
Tougher tests don’t themselves raise standards
The ASCL’s own research confirms that tougher tests are not expected to raise standards by themselves. Critically, because the outcomes are statistically comparable nationally, one school can only improve if another declines. Around 65 - 70% of 16 year olds will be awarded a 4 or above.
Selective colleges and employers, will have to formulate their own fair criteria when considering entrants, staff and graduates.
The progress 8 model still stands
Because exam results continue to be based on the Progress 8 model, and relative as tranches of score nationally with half of schools being under 0 and half over 0, the new grades still can’t be used as a static scale by which to measure teachers' or students' progress. Anywhere delivering GCSEs will now need to devise their own ways to monitor the performance of their teaching staff and review course leaders who may be underperforming. In their closing paragraph, the ASCL recommends that GCSE providers take on an external advisor who 'understands the current turbulence to support them during [staff] performance management discussions', although quite where the funding for this additional resource would come from is up to you.
References: Ofqual Factsheet